'Ghost Rider' likely to spark B.O.

Ghost Driver: Spirit of Vengeance will probably top the weekend. Reese Witherspoon and Tom Sturdy star within this Means War. The Presidents' Day weekend box office, which Sony's three dimensional follow up "Ghost Driver: Spirit of Vengeance" will probably lead, is not likely to topple the vacation high-water mark occur 2010 -- however the overall frame ought to be sufficiently strong to help keep the 2012 B.O. clicking in an impressive pace, thanks simply to some moviegoing rebound among more youthful auds.Nicolas Cage starrer "Ghost Driver," which opens at 3,174 locations including 2,352 in three dimensional, could achieve up to $$ 30 million in four days, based on some bizzers. Other monitoring services possess the film called in a more sensible launch within the low- to mid-$20 millions.The rest of the two openers, Fox's romantic actioner "What This Means Is War" and Disney's Studio Ghibli toon "The Key Realm of Arrietty," are required to trail with forecasted four-day bows around $16 million and $12 million, correspondingly. Solid holdover perfs from "Safe House" and "TheVow" will even help boost totals versus. past Presidents' Day frames. Totals ought to be plenty sufficient to overtake the $173.9 million tally for that 2011 four-day Presidents' Day weekend, throughout which "Unknown" and "Gnomeo and Juliet" vied for No. 1 just north of $25 million each. However it will not best 2010, when Warner Bros.' "Valentine's" obtained the holiday's best-ever $63 million opening, leading an archive-setting $239.8 million tally for that four-day frame.Domestic B.O. continues to be hard to predict previously couple of days -- however in a great way, since many game titles have overperformed.The return of teens (as evidenced through the strong reception of more youthful-skewing "Chronicle" and "The Vow") bodes well with this weekend's "Ghost Driver," that is resonating best with under-25 males. Filmgoing among under-25 auds delayed last fall, simply due to greater ticket prices, alternative movie-watching products and flagging curiosity about three dimensional and nonfranchise photos (a trend that "Chronicle" bucked)."What This Means Is War," starring Reese Witherspoon and Chris Pine, should act as effective femme counterprogramming to "Ghost Driver." Fox initially dated "War," which bows day-and-date around australia and Russia, for any Stateside launch on Valentine's, however the studio ultimately made the decision to distance the film in the similarly specific "The Vow."Rather, Fox held sneaks of "War" on Valentine's, generating a reported $1.7 million.Having a mid-$70 million budget, "Ghost Driver" is monitoring much much softer than its predecessor, which opened up with $52 million within the same four-day weekend in 2007. That pic continued to cume nearly $230 million worldwide. The new sony bows the follow up a few days ago in marketplaces including South america, France, Mexico, Columbia and also the U.K.Anime pic "The Key Realm of Arrietty" has been doing boffo business in Japan, grossing $110 million this past year. Disney distributes Ghibli fare locally, with an area count of just one,522, "Arrietty" marks the largest Stateside release for that Japanese toon shop. Last Year, a button opened up "Ponyo" to $3.six million for any domestic cume of $15 million."Arrietty," according to kids classic "The Debtors," includes a voice cast which includes Will Arnett, Amy Poehler, Carol Burnett and Bridgit Mendler.Holdovers "Safe House" and "The Vow" likely will fall around 45%. "The Vow" cumed $51.7 million through Wednesday "Safe House," $59 million. Warner Bros.-New Line's "Journey 2: The Mysterious Island" should still dominate among family auds, affecting "Arrietty." Domestic cume on "Journey 2" is nearly $32 million.In the niche B.O., Drafthouse Films launches Oscar-nommed Belgian film "Bullhead" at nine Stateside locations. The Weinstein Co.'s "Undefeated" (nominated for feature docu) bows at five. Contact Andrew Stewart at andrew.stewart@variety.com